*** Call for Papers *** 

Chance Discovery and Its Management
--- 3rd International Workshop on Chance Discovery (CDWS3) ---
     A Full-day Workshop in HCI International 2003
     June 22-27, 2003
     Crete, Greece
     http://hcii2003.ics.forth.gr/index.asp

[Important Dates]
     Paper submission (Position paper, 3-5 pages long)    January 20, 2003
     Notification                                         January 27, 2003
     Submission of revised paper                         February 14, 2003

     Email position paper to
        Hiroko Shoji hiroko@da2.so-net.ne.jp  or
        Yutaka Matsuo y.matsuo@carc.aist.go.jp

The proceedings of this workshop will be published as a book by IOS Press, merged with the proceedings of the special session on Chance Discovery at KES 2002.

[Objective and significance of the session]
Chance discovery is the discovery OF chance, rather than discovery BY chance.
A "chance" here means a new event/situation that can be conceived either as 
an opportunity or as a risk. The "discovery" of chances is of crucial 
importance since it may have a significant impact on human decision making. 
Desirable effects of opportunities should be actively promoted, whereas 
preventive measures should be taken in the case of discovered risks. In other 
words, chance discovery aims to provide means for inventing or surviving the 
future, rather than predicting the future. 
The essential aspect of a chance (risk or opportunity) is that it can be the
seed of new and significant changes in the near future. The discovery of new 
opportunities might be more beneficial than reliance on past frequent 
success-patterns, because they are not known yet by one's business rivals. 
The discovery of new risks might be indispensable to avoid or lessen damage, 
because they cannot be explained by past frequent damage-patterns. Therefore, 
being aware of a novel important event without ignoring it as noise in the
data is essential for human future success.
Actually, in these 10 years, several techniques for data mining have been 
developed, however, they can only show current or past tendencies. Today, 
we are in the very changeable society. Therefore, we need to find or to be 

shown a new event/situation that can be conceived either as an opportunity or 
as a risk. For all of us, it is very important to predict such an event like 
the end of economic bubble (Japan, in 1990) or other economic panics. Since 
these sorts of events can be thought of as rare or novel events or exceptions.

The conventional data mining techniques usually ignore such exceptions. For 
example, the very famous Black-Scholes equation (actually, this is not data 
mining, but its concept is like that of induction or data mining) has no power
for such situations.
Chance Discovery is such a research to study methodologies and theories to 
show a new event/situation that can be conceived either as an opportunity or 
as a risk. It is quite different from current data mining researches. It tries
to deal with complex events in the real world. For example, it will deal with 
earthquake prediction, foretelling booms, risk management, prediction of 
unpredictable change of stock price, etc. For this purpose, Chance Discovery 
needs various techniques like techniques to discover relationship between 
events, to suggest missing events, knowledge in economy, knowledge in 
sociology, knowledge in risk management, and so on. Therefore, now, it is 
very important to discuss "Chance Discovery" from various viewpoints.

This workshop is intended to bring together researchers from artificial 
intelligence, human-computer interaction, social and cognitive sciences, risk 
management, knowledge discovery and data mining, and other related domains, 
for stimulating discussions on chance discovery.

[Topics to be discussed (will not be restricted to)]
- Analysis of human behavior.
- Analysis of complex systems (society, community etc.).
- Applications for Chance Discovery.
- Chance Discovery in Creativity Support.
- Chance Discovery and Information Visualization.
- Chance Discovery in Usability.
- Chance Discovery and WWW
- Characterization of "Chance."
- Logical foundations for Chance Discovery.
- Theories and methodologies to discover rare or novel events.
- Theories and methodologies to foretell next trends.
- Theories and methodologies to make aware of significant events.

[Organizer and Committee]
Co-organizer:
Hiroko Shoji, Kawamura Gakuen Women's University, hiroko@da2.so-net.ne.jp
Yutaka Matsuo, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology,  y.matsuo@carc.aist.go.jp

Committee:
Peter Bruza, University of Queensland, Australia, bruza@dstc.edu.au
Peter McBurney, University of Liverpool, UK, p.j.mcburney@csc.liv.ac.uk
Ruediger Oehlmann, Kingston University, UK, R.Oehlmann@kingston.ac.uk
Chengyu Krystian Ji, University of New South Wales, Australia, krystian_jee@hotmail.com
Yukio Ohsawa, University of Tsukuba, Japan, osawa@gssm.otsuka.tsukuba.ac.jp
Yasufumi Shibanai, Doshisha University, yshibana@mail.doshisha.ac.jp
Akinori Abe, ATR, Japan, ave@cslab.kecl.ntt.co.jp
Mayumi I. Kamata, University of Tokyo, Japan, mitakura@jp.ibm.com
Makoto Mizuno, Hakuhodo, Inc., Japan, mmizuno@hakuhodo.co.jp